The Owl of Minerva

May 2021


A Crucial Estimate Relived (1964), Sheman Kent’s post-mortem analysis of “his greatest mistake”, the prediction three weeks before the Cuban missile crisis that Russia would be unlikely to station missiles in Cuba that could reach the US. A great introduction to intelligence analysis as well as a good example of how to analyse and think through a failure.

You must be prepared to act on your dreams, just in case they do come true.
Bill Strickland

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